WEATHER DISCUSSION – Sunday December 22, 2024 –
Frequent snow days ALL week with a busy weather pattern
We have some snow flurries at Bogus Basin as of this afternoon (1-2pm, see cam image below, and latest radar showing precip moving in), as a weak weather system is expected to move through this evening and tonight (see computer model images below showing 10,000 to 20,000ft moisture (green), and some of the mid level dynamics (yellow to red)), clearing to more sunshine (than Sunday) on Monday, then frequent/ daily, and heavier snow is all this coming week, starting Tuesday as a strong low pressure system moves in with good moisture and a most times favorable (southwest) cross-mountain wind flow for good orographics, though we have base elevation snow-level issues to watch for with the initial relatively mild air, then a cold fron drops snow levels drastically Tuesday afternoon-evening through early Wednesday when snow ends, clearing to a mostly sunny Christmas Day! Another strong low pressure system moves in Wednesday evening-overnight, with a shot of good snow-day powder for Thursdays opening, continuing through afternoon mainly, then lighter, could be near a FOOT of SNOW Wednesday night + Thursday (this system has a “tail” or plume of moisture extending up from offshore of California and across Tahoe, usually boding well for Bogus Basin. There will be a lot of wind at times with these strong and somewhat cold systems, for blowing and drifting of snow, also making it hard to measure snow even with the setup Bogus has. The pattern continues very active late next week, weekend, and right into 2025 (see the “long range” below), with frequent, sometimes daily and sometimes heavy, snowfalls.
LONGER RANGE
It is looking like a snowy New Year’s Eve and Day, then as we move into early January 2025, very cold air may drop south into the area due to a highly amplified N-S pressure pattern, with strong high-pressure ridging over Alaska, and low pressure over or south of Southern California, dragging very cold modified arctic air into the region, for single digits and colder sub-zero temperatures on the mountain free-air temps (to -5F at 10k feet), not “radiational cooling”, so this could be when most will test out their layers as wind could be a part of this also. Otherwise, the pattern remains progressive and busy with storms, no “snow droughts” seen. Snowforecast.com Meteorologist/ Chris Manly (I have been actively forecasting weather and snow for ski resorts since 1998)
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